All time RSI high on the weekly chart!
Sell level for Friday
9 hours ago
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Whats up with Gold?
I have been wondering what we should be prepared for, Deflation or Inflation. Because if we have Inflation, then we should really plan for buying lots of Gold.
Lets take a look at a Gold Charts:
Charts show no clear buy signal yet...
-anar
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Update
Looks like the sell on SLV and Gold was a good one!
Last week SLV fell 9.61%!
Anyway, Oil is showing signs of life finally~! I own DXO. This will surely show great gains by the end of this year.
Gold Silver Thoughts - Although for the meanwhile prices of these metals will fall back down to the $800 level on Gold, I will look to buy again once we test there. See AllAllan's post on gold etc!
Overall Market Thoughts - I am still overall SHORT the market. Technical still show weakness and the Dow will see 6,000 before 9,000! At the same time it is risky to do a lot of short selling of stocks as we can get squeezed very quickly. Yet look to play some put options on up days. 2009 will see Dow 6,000 and probably hover around that level for a while. Gold will take off later this year and Oil will move to a stable price around 90-130.
401k Update - keep your money in money market, or move them to money market if you have not done so! You still have a chance to save some more money
-be nimble my friends
Last week SLV fell 9.61%!
Anyway, Oil is showing signs of life finally~! I own DXO. This will surely show great gains by the end of this year.
Gold Silver Thoughts - Although for the meanwhile prices of these metals will fall back down to the $800 level on Gold, I will look to buy again once we test there. See AllAllan's post on gold etc!
Overall Market Thoughts - I am still overall SHORT the market. Technical still show weakness and the Dow will see 6,000 before 9,000! At the same time it is risky to do a lot of short selling of stocks as we can get squeezed very quickly. Yet look to play some put options on up days. 2009 will see Dow 6,000 and probably hover around that level for a while. Gold will take off later this year and Oil will move to a stable price around 90-130.
401k Update - keep your money in money market, or move them to money market if you have not done so! You still have a chance to save some more money
-be nimble my friends
Friday, February 20, 2009
Update - Stay Short
I have owned SLV $13 Calls since Silver was $11 and change.... I Sold my calls yesterday as SLV reached $14 and change
GAIN in CALL = ~ 115%
I am all out of Silver and Gold for a little while, they seem to want a breather, which is normal and appropriate.
Again, I think Silver and Gold go much higher in 2009 and Gold above $1000 for sure. But for now, I am out of there.
Market Update - I am still holding FAZ, SRS, QID... and I think we know how they have been doing :)
The market is going to go lower for sure, there may be a small rebound but look for target areas below 7,000 on Dow!
Shorting opportunities = Insurance Comps (Prudential - I own puts), SPY Puts, Dow Puts
This market has more falling to do, so don't go long just yet.
-anar
GAIN in CALL = ~ 115%
I am all out of Silver and Gold for a little while, they seem to want a breather, which is normal and appropriate.
Again, I think Silver and Gold go much higher in 2009 and Gold above $1000 for sure. But for now, I am out of there.
Market Update - I am still holding FAZ, SRS, QID... and I think we know how they have been doing :)
The market is going to go lower for sure, there may be a small rebound but look for target areas below 7,000 on Dow!
Shorting opportunities = Insurance Comps (Prudential - I own puts), SPY Puts, Dow Puts
This market has more falling to do, so don't go long just yet.
-anar
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Saturday, February 14, 2009
New Short = WHR (whirlpool)
FYI - The chart of Nordstrom, JWN.... it has still to crack but will very soon, when it does I will post an update.
In the meanwhile Whirlpool is very weak.
In addition to the Technical chart I must note the company has $2Billion in Debt and $140Million in Cash.... Bad news for them
Friday, February 13, 2009
Market Update and New Pick: SILVER
Silver seems to be doing very well recently.Here is the weekly chart...
There are some bullish indicators for sure, but I would wait for the RSI breakout, Price breakout above $14 resistance and MACD breakout... although OBV has already hit ALL TIME HIGH!
I already own SLV Options, I may buy more if those signals are met
Overall Market Update: A major drop is imminent and I am still holding FAZ, SRS, PCLN Put Options, PRU Put Options, and DXO (2x Oil Bull)
401K Update: Keep your money in Money Market or move it to Money Market if you have not done so... If you have access to FGMNX or another Ginnie Mae Fund, use that too
Don't forget... for the rest of our lifetime, from now on, the U.S. stock market will not be the place of the fastest growth. I firmly believe this.
-anar
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Reading Charts Example - Nordstrom (JWN)
How to read a chart, brief intro...
This is Nordstrom Daily and Weekly Charts
Weekly tells us the overall trend
Daily tells us when to make the moves. As you see on my daily chart, I specify the entry point: when the RSI(14) Breaks down below the support level drawn.
This is Nordstrom Daily and Weekly Charts
Weekly tells us the overall trend
Daily tells us when to make the moves. As you see on my daily chart, I specify the entry point: when the RSI(14) Breaks down below the support level drawn.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Update - Short SLM
Well it seems that we have been pretty much right... Market is falling. The trend will continue with snap back rallies along the way to load up on shorts or put options.
New Stock Play I came across..
SHORT: SLM (Sallie Mae) - "SLM currently has a market cap of $5.4 billion, which is almost the same as its shareholder equity of $5.3 billion. The problem is, SLM currently has $141.3 billion in outstanding loans to students... so it will take only a 3.8% default rate to wipe out their shareholder equity completely."
I think the picture is clear, buy some shorts and/or Put options
Put Option I like: Jul '09 $10.00 - 2.45/contract
-am
New Stock Play I came across..
SHORT: SLM (Sallie Mae) - "SLM currently has a market cap of $5.4 billion, which is almost the same as its shareholder equity of $5.3 billion. The problem is, SLM currently has $141.3 billion in outstanding loans to students... so it will take only a 3.8% default rate to wipe out their shareholder equity completely."
I think the picture is clear, buy some shorts and/or Put options
Put Option I like: Jul '09 $10.00 - 2.45/contract
-am
Monday, January 19, 2009
Just to Clarify - Market Fall Imminent
AllAllan made a great post that reminds me to remind everyone.....
Let us not forget that a Major Market Fall is Imminent!
So inspite of the LONG stocks I mentioned, I will favor the SHORT side much more with vehicles such as FAZ, SRS, DXD, QID!
So play this carefully, but mostly to the DOWNSIDE
Thanks Allan!
-Anar
Let us not forget that a Major Market Fall is Imminent!
So inspite of the LONG stocks I mentioned, I will favor the SHORT side much more with vehicles such as FAZ, SRS, DXD, QID!
So play this carefully, but mostly to the DOWNSIDE
Thanks Allan!
-Anar
Specifc Plays
LONG
1. DXO - buy the more of the regular shares
2. CAM - Options April 2009 $30.00 Call - $2.60
3. TGB - buy full stock
4. GFRE - buy full stock
5. DPDW - full stock
7. PSPM - full stock ($0.18)
SHORT
1. AAI - Option Play - (A) April 09 $2.50 PUT - $0.20 (half stock) (B) Jul 09 $2.50 PUT - $0.45 (Half stock)
2. SQNM @ $28
3. FSLR @ $160
NOTE - use 8% stops of course and buy only those you like!
-anar
1. DXO - buy the more of the regular shares
2. CAM - Options April 2009 $30.00 Call - $2.60
3. TGB - buy full stock
4. GFRE - buy full stock
5. DPDW - full stock
7. PSPM - full stock ($0.18)
SHORT
1. AAI - Option Play - (A) April 09 $2.50 PUT - $0.20 (half stock) (B) Jul 09 $2.50 PUT - $0.45 (Half stock)
2. SQNM @ $28
3. FSLR @ $160
NOTE - use 8% stops of course and buy only those you like!
-anar
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Recap and New Picks
Since my last post we have done really well!
My 2 buys were SRS (+10%) and FAZ(+25%). The % is my profit after selling on Thursday of last week.
General Trend - Market is still in a big downtrend and nothing has shown any reason to change sides... STAY BEARISH
New picks
AllAllan -
LONG - ACTC(biotech), DPDW(oil service), CSIQ(solar)
Bucky's -
SHORT - AAI(Air Tran), DTO (Double Short Oil), LMT(Lockheed), RTN(Raytheon)
LONG - Oil, DXO (Double Long Oil), PSPM(green revolution play), PCP, BIDU
ANAR'S - DXO (Link to Bucky's Chart about Oil)
Go Big! I owe some but will be adding MUCH MORE THIS WEEK
Smaller Plays - DPDW, CSIQ, PSPM, AAI(short) PCP, GFRE, TGB (Copper is still in Breakout mode)
401K Advice - If you have any mutual funds that are Energy centric get a little of those, otherwise stay with GinnieMae, and a little international (1%)
My 2 buys were SRS (+10%) and FAZ(+25%). The % is my profit after selling on Thursday of last week.
General Trend - Market is still in a big downtrend and nothing has shown any reason to change sides... STAY BEARISH
New picks
AllAllan -
LONG - ACTC(biotech), DPDW(oil service), CSIQ(solar)
Bucky's -
SHORT - AAI(Air Tran), DTO (Double Short Oil), LMT(Lockheed), RTN(Raytheon)
LONG - Oil, DXO (Double Long Oil), PSPM(green revolution play), PCP, BIDU
ANAR'S - DXO (Link to Bucky's Chart about Oil)
Go Big! I owe some but will be adding MUCH MORE THIS WEEK
Smaller Plays - DPDW, CSIQ, PSPM, AAI(short) PCP, GFRE, TGB (Copper is still in Breakout mode)
401K Advice - If you have any mutual funds that are Energy centric get a little of those, otherwise stay with GinnieMae, and a little international (1%)
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Quick note about short term movements
I have been doing some searching recently and I may have to tell everyone to hold off on buying any Oil, Gold, Silver, Commodities for a little while longer!
Yes, I do think those are the best bets for the next 5 years, but let's not rush into buying that stuff now. Those trades have been profitable for the last month or so (January Effect Style).
Based on charts courtesy of MooseJawJabber Gold and Oil seem to be rolling over very soon! I am looking to buy DZZ (Ultrashort Gold), DUG(Ultrashort Oil), SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate), and FAZ(3x Bear Financials)
All Allan's Nugget: Copper is Breaking Out - look to buy TGB
Anar
Yes, I do think those are the best bets for the next 5 years, but let's not rush into buying that stuff now. Those trades have been profitable for the last month or so (January Effect Style).
Based on charts courtesy of MooseJawJabber Gold and Oil seem to be rolling over very soon! I am looking to buy DZZ (Ultrashort Gold), DUG(Ultrashort Oil), SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate), and FAZ(3x Bear Financials)
All Allan's Nugget: Copper is Breaking Out - look to buy TGB
Anar
Sunday, January 4, 2009
401k Update and Some Short Term Nuggets
Overall Market Notes
Look for the market to rally up to the 10,000 - 11,000 area on the Dow.
Expect the rally to last until Obama is inaugurated, so end of January.
HOWEVER, 2009 will be another down year. Overall trend is Dow to 5,000. Look for nice set ups on the long side such as those above! Oil, silver and agriculture will be good buys as well.
401k Advice
If you still have money in domestic mutual funds then move out of them in February. Move money to more conservative options (Money Market Funds, GinnieMae Fund) AND start moving A LITTLE BIT into International Mutual Funds
KEY POINT: It is time to STOP Investing in Domestic Stock Mutual Funds from now on... Most of our lifetime will find the best returns in International Markets (China, India). Paradigm Shift
Uranium Stocks from AllAllan!
1) URRE - $0.84 - Target = $3.00
2) DNN - $1.70 - Target = $5.70
3) URZ - $0.78 - Target = $1.80
Look for the market to rally up to the 10,000 - 11,000 area on the Dow.
Expect the rally to last until Obama is inaugurated, so end of January.
HOWEVER, 2009 will be another down year. Overall trend is Dow to 5,000. Look for nice set ups on the long side such as those above! Oil, silver and agriculture will be good buys as well.
401k Advice
If you still have money in domestic mutual funds then move out of them in February. Move money to more conservative options (Money Market Funds, GinnieMae Fund) AND start moving A LITTLE BIT into International Mutual Funds
KEY POINT: It is time to STOP Investing in Domestic Stock Mutual Funds from now on... Most of our lifetime will find the best returns in International Markets (China, India). Paradigm Shift
Short Term Nuggets
Uranium Stocks from AllAllan!
1) URRE - $0.84 - Target = $3.00
2) DNN - $1.70 - Target = $5.70
3) URZ - $0.78 - Target = $1.80
Monday, December 29, 2008
What to own for 2009 and Beyond
Here is the deal - let's ask ourselves, where have the fundamentals changed the least?
Negative Fundamentals = Stay away from these
1. Financials - these are doomed and fundamentals have changed significantly
2. Technology - these companies are affected as a result of less discretionary spending and thus less demand and smaller profits, --> fundamentals are negatively changed
3. Real Estate and related - these companies are obviously still affected and have terrible fundamentals, with the recent incentives of low interest rates buying of homes may start to increase but very gradually --> stay away for at least another year
4. Retail Sector - this is obvious, I don't need to say much --> stay away
Least Change in Fundamentals = Potential Winners for 2009
1. Natural Resources ! - demand for these precious metals will exist as long as the population of the world is not declining... and it is most surely not! These sectors have taken a large hit as the prices have dropped but Oil will be in large large demand, there is no denying of that fact! Same with Natural Gas. People MUST use Oil and Gas, however, people don't really need an iPod or a pair of 7 Jeans... Gold and Silver hold their fundamental value well and can be a safe when the dollar starts dropping...
> Silver
> Gold
> Oil
> Natural Gas
2. Agriculture - POT. Beautiful technical set up.
3. China - sure they have stopped building as much, and the U.S. is not buying as much of their goods but that country is has a Positive growth of GDP (the U.S. has NEGATIVE growth of GDP....) soo fundamentally I would be much more willing to invest there than here
> FXI - China ETF - no technical break out yet, but it is brewing
Now... picks for 2009 that have already shown Technical breakout
1) SLV $10.77 - Silver ETF - weekly and daily charts show solid buy signals
2) DBA $25.09 - Agriculture ETF - just starting its break out!
3) IAU $86.45 - Gold ETF - shows break out on daily MACD, and has retested safely RSI breakout
4) UNG $25.19 - Natural gas ETF - shows daily RSI breakout
Negative Fundamentals = Stay away from these
1. Financials - these are doomed and fundamentals have changed significantly
2. Technology - these companies are affected as a result of less discretionary spending and thus less demand and smaller profits, --> fundamentals are negatively changed
3. Real Estate and related - these companies are obviously still affected and have terrible fundamentals, with the recent incentives of low interest rates buying of homes may start to increase but very gradually --> stay away for at least another year
4. Retail Sector - this is obvious, I don't need to say much --> stay away
Least Change in Fundamentals = Potential Winners for 2009
1. Natural Resources ! - demand for these precious metals will exist as long as the population of the world is not declining... and it is most surely not! These sectors have taken a large hit as the prices have dropped but Oil will be in large large demand, there is no denying of that fact! Same with Natural Gas. People MUST use Oil and Gas, however, people don't really need an iPod or a pair of 7 Jeans... Gold and Silver hold their fundamental value well and can be a safe when the dollar starts dropping...
> Silver
> Gold
> Oil
> Natural Gas
2. Agriculture - POT. Beautiful technical set up.
3. China - sure they have stopped building as much, and the U.S. is not buying as much of their goods but that country is has a Positive growth of GDP (the U.S. has NEGATIVE growth of GDP....) soo fundamentally I would be much more willing to invest there than here
> FXI - China ETF - no technical break out yet, but it is brewing
Now... picks for 2009 that have already shown Technical breakout
1) SLV $10.77 - Silver ETF - weekly and daily charts show solid buy signals
2) DBA $25.09 - Agriculture ETF - just starting its break out!
3) IAU $86.45 - Gold ETF - shows break out on daily MACD, and has retested safely RSI breakout
4) UNG $25.19 - Natural gas ETF - shows daily RSI breakout
Monday, December 22, 2008
What CNBC thinks you should buy during a recession is WRONG
All over the news and from "Professionals" you may hear that during a recession we, the investors, should buy "Defensive" stocks, or better know as Consumer Staples. The basics - food, water, toothpaste, bleach, bandaids etc...
Well let's take a look at this "Professional" Advice... Thank you Bucky for a great chart...
Well let's take a look at this "Professional" Advice... Thank you Bucky for a great chart...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Position Sizing - How to determine how many shares to buy
How much of a stock should you buy?
Here is a great formula:
Let's assume the following:
Trading Account: $5,000
Risk per trade: 1%
Protective Stop: 8%
Profit Target: 20%
Stock Price: $50
By choosing to put 1% of our equity at risk per trade, we are risking up to $1000 per trade: $5,000 * 1% = $50.
Our system calls for an 8% protective stop and we know we have a stock price of $50 so that means we are risking $4 per share: $50 * 8% = $4.
This means our protective stop gets placed at $46: $50-$4=$46
Now to calculate how many shares to buy, we simply divide our risk amount per trade by our risk amount per share: $50/$4 = 12.5 shares = $625
Formula from: ibdindex Blog
Here is a great formula:
Let's assume the following:
Trading Account: $5,000
Risk per trade: 1%
Protective Stop: 8%
Profit Target: 20%
Stock Price: $50
By choosing to put 1% of our equity at risk per trade, we are risking up to $1000 per trade: $5,000 * 1% = $50.
Our system calls for an 8% protective stop and we know we have a stock price of $50 so that means we are risking $4 per share: $50 * 8% = $4.
This means our protective stop gets placed at $46: $50-$4=$46
Now to calculate how many shares to buy, we simply divide our risk amount per trade by our risk amount per share: $50/$4 = 12.5 shares = $625
Formula from: ibdindex Blog
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